The latest climate outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology is looking more positive for Lismore and the Northern Rivers as La Nina slowly weakens.

In September 2022, The Bureau declared a third La Nina which had all residents worried that a repeat of February 28 was likely. With weather patterns so unpredictable and the wettest months of February and March to come, we cannot rule out more flooding, however, the statistics are not as threatening as spring last year.

In September 2022, The Bureau said there was an 80% chance of above-average rainfall for eastern parts of Australia.

Below, you can see there is now a 58% chance of above median (halfway point from highest to lowest point) rainfall for the three months of February to April 2023.

There is a slightly lower percentage in the monthly forecasts for February and March.

(February 2023)

(March 2023)

Lismore has already experienced a drier December with 233.4mm in 2021 and 78.8mm in December 2022.

January 2022 recorded 165mm in Lismore and at the halfway point in the month in 2023, we have recorded 25.2mm with 23mm falling in one day.

There is a little rain on the way to add to that total this week with the range starting with a 0 and ending with a 2 or 3. Nothing of any significance at this stage.

So, as we make our way into our wettest months, there is increasing hope that the rainfall will not be like 2022 with statistics showing approximately a 25% chance of an unusually wet February and March as our third La Nina weakens.