Less than two weeks until we go to the polls for the 2023 NSW State Election, the Lismpre App chats to two local election analysts, Graham Askey and Mark Bailey, about their take on who will win the Seat of Lismore and why.

Both Mr Askey and Mr Bailey still see Labor's Janelle Saffin as the clear favourite in a three-horse race between Janelle Saffin, the National's Alex Rubin and The Greens Adam Guise.

Graham Askey said according to Sportsbet, punters jumped on Saffin's original price last week at $2 and Ms Saffin's price has now been driven down to $1. 30 which makes it appear that Ms Saffin is a dead-set certainty to win the election on March the 25th.

"However, I think, it may end up actually being closer than it was in 2019," Mr Askey said.

"The main reason is that the National Party's candidate, Alex Rubin doesn't have as many conservative parties on the ballot paper who end up, what's called splitting the vote as Curtain had in 2019"

"There is no Greg Bennett and there is no Christian Democratic Party member. The only conservative that Ruben has to worry about is the Shooters and Fishers party and I don't think they will poll as many votes as Greg Bennett and Paul Collits did in 2019. Therefore, when you get down to where there are only three candidates left, Rubin will have a higher total vote than Austin Curtain had."

Mr Askey said that 50% at the most recent elections just vote 1 and don't allocate preferences.

Mark Bailey thinks for any National Party candidate to win Lismore they would need to get over 45% of the vote and that is not likely.

"He doesn't have the funding, Alex Rubin certainly doesn't have the budget that Austin Curtin had and I don't think he's got the troops on the ground."

Graham Askey said the only way for Alex Rubin to win is if Adam Guise managed to get in front of Janelle Saffin, "In the same way that Guise got in front of Isaac Smith in 2015. If you look at the results side by side in 2015 and 2019 and get down to the last three candidates, it's the same. Except in 2015, Guise got in front of Smith so the ALP votes were distributed and it's important to note that Green voters in this area are meticulous about giving preferences, they are probably the best in the state."

"Their exhaustion rate in this area is 23.1% whereas the ALP exhaustion rate is about 38% and also what's known as leakage, that means that say an ALP vote being for Rubin rather than Guise is much higher than the other way around. So, Guise just gets in front of Saffin then Rubin will get elected. Guise would need to increase his primary vote from Higginson in 2019 by about 2.5% and that whole 2.5% would have to be taken from the conservative side of the vote. It's no use the Greens cannibalising the ALP vote."

"On the other side of the ledger, the redistribution, taking part of the very Greens areas of Federal out of Ballina and putting them in Lismore, will favour the left by approximately half a percent."

Mark Bailey also thinks that Adam Guise's campaign is an unlikely victor. "His role as a councillor means he is not coming from a place of popularity transitioning across to state level."

There is the possibility that all three main contenders could increase their primary vote through Rubin's lack of conservative options, the Federal redistribution and Saffin's popularity and incumbency.

Graham Askey said, "Yes, I think they'll probably go up a little bit. Last time, Sue Higginson was actually harmed by Alison Waters of the AJP (Animal Justice Party), it probably cost her about 300 votes. I don't think the AJP candidate (Vanessa Rosayro) this time will poll as well as Alison did and therefore, the Greens votes should go up."

"For Saffin, her vote could also go up because, I suspect, there's a general swing away from the coalition across New South Wales. I've been told by sources that there is a swing on but it's very patchy and in any case, rural seats don't swing as wildly as metropolitan seats. She has the benefits of incumbency and she has the benefits of being seen, working hard and doing a lot of stuff plus she's had a lot of publicity because she is the local member so she is the one who is always seen in

the media."

"It will also go up because she is quite well positioned on the ballot paper being at number two just after the Shooters, whereas, Rubins is last and Guise is second last.

When asked if the ballot position will have an effect on the election result, Mr Askey said, "It helps to be at the top as people will see it first. The Shooters is number one which could increase their vote a bit and potentially hurt Rubin sort of.

Mark Bailey said, "If ever you wanted a dream candidate with a dream run in a dream time, that's Janelle Saffin. She's done a superb job since the flood. She has literally worked above and beyond what any politician would normally be expected to do. I think she could easily poll 23,000 to 24,000 primary votes which puts her above 40%. It is the best-case scenario but it's possible."

Needless to say, this is why Mark Bailey feels Janelle Saffin is a firm favourite to comfortably win the seat of Lismore on March 25.

According to Graham Askey, the only scenario that Janelle Saffin won't win this election is if she runs third out of the three and that is a highly unlikely scenario.

"She will get two because the Geen and Labor votes in this area hovers around 25% each and the National votes are then around the 40% mark and 10% goes to various independence and small parties."

"In 2015, with very similar numbers to what you had in 2019, Thomas George ended up prevailing with a two-party preferred vote of 52.86% and in 2019, again, with pretty much the same kind of numbers, it got down to the last three candidates and Janelle Saffin prevailed with a two-party preferred of 51.35%."

So, one analyst thinks the election result will be closer than 2019 but is still predicting a win for Janelle Saffin while the other thinks Janelle Saffin will win comfortably.

The big unknown is the effect of potentially losing one to two thousand votes in South and North Lismore and the CBD due to last year's flood. Nobody knows for sure, how many people have been displaced and where they are living plus how many have relocated out of the area. It is expected that those people would more than likely vote for the ALP or Greens.

While there are some unknowns for the Seat of Lismore this election, one thing for certain is that pre-poll voting starts this Saturday, March 18 at 9am at the following venues:

• Goonellabah Community Centre, 27 Oliver Avenue.
• Lismore Early Voting at 104 Molesworth Street, Lismore.
• Murwillumbah Civic and Cultural Centre, 10-14 Tumbulgum Road, Murwillumbah
• Kyogle Memorial Institue Hall 6-8 Stratheden Street, Kyogle.

The hours you can vote are:

• Saturday, March 18: 9am to 6pm
• Monday to Wednesday March 20 to 22: 8:30am to 5:30am
• Thursday March 23: 8:30am to 8pm
• Friday March 24: 8:30am to 6pm