There have been speculative discussions on social media about the likelihood of a flood in January with the prediction of a higher-than-average rainfall forecast. 

The ground has to be saturated, and rain needs to fall fast and long in specific catchment areas. At this stage, there is not enough evidence of that to raise concern.

As we know, January, February and March are prime candidate months for flooding, but it isn’t a guarantee.

According to the BOM, the outlook for the rest of December will be predominantly dry. Higher than usual minimum and maximum temperatures will see us feeling the heat over Christmas. Cold seafood platters are recommended!

In January, there is higher than average rainfall expected, but it is not predicted to all fall at once. However, the ground is relatively wet, and the runoff will see swollen rivers. The conditions for potential flooding have not presented themselves at this stage.

Predictions look at the chance of a “burst” event - 75mm plus rainfall within a three-day period. The outlook for that is 0 to 20% until January 6th. Beyond that, we will have to wait to see what the modelling predicts.

However, the BOM is saying there is a 59% chance of above-median rainfall (greater than 125.1mm) in January and a 23% chance of an unusually wet month (greater than 257.8mm). For February, the above-median rainfall is similar at 60%, but the unusually wet percentage rises to 32.

The higher minimum and maximum temperature forecast will last through January and into February and March.

With the summer holidays almost here, the call of the wild sees many opting to camp. Due to the possibility of swollen streams and river banks, the SES are asking that you take particular care when selecting a camping site.  

Scott McLennan advises, “Keep back from the edges of waterways, and don’t set your tent up under trees.

“With the advent of Hip camping and other free camping adventurers, they are the people at risk, they don’t know the conditions for the area, and conditions have a tendency to change. They are the people we are called out to most often.

“The other risk group at this time of year are people towing trailers and caravans. If water levels are high, bridges are under strain. There was an incident recently with a Rav 4 towing a trailer - they only just got over the bridge, and it collapsed.

“Consider your circumstances and risk levels when you venture out this summer.”