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Tropical Cyclone Alfred update: landfall Friday night/Saturday morning

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Simon Mumford

05 March 2025, 11:37 PM

Tropical Cyclone Alfred update: landfall Friday night/Saturday morning

The daily Tropical Cyclone Alfred update from the Bureau of Meteorology was delayed this morning to provide the latest information on its path and landfall crossing.


The reason residents of Lismore and the Northern Rivers woke to calm conditions and even some blue sky was because TC Alfred stalled in the Coral Sea.



The BOM's senior meteorologist Dean Narramore said Alfred has started its track towards the Queensland coast once again.


"Now the reason why this happened is because the high pressure system steering Alfred towards the coast, actually weakened overnight, so that allowed for Tropical Cyclone Alfred to kind of stall and remain well offshore before the high pressure system has re-strengthened this morning, and that's why we've seen a resumption of Tropical Cyclone Alfred head back towards the west, towards the south east, Queensland coast this morning."


Alfred's landfall crossing is now expected to be late on Friday night or the early hours of Saturday morning. It will still be a Category 2 system.



"They're still going to bring these widespread impacts that we've been talking about all week, with damaging to locally destructive winds, particularly around our Bayside and coastal communities, and elevated terrain.


"Widespread heavy rainfall that will lead to flooding, particularly well south of where Tropical Cyclone Alfred crosses in far south east Queensland and much of north east New South Wales, and dangerous storm surge and storm tide that will lead to significant and major coastal erosion, particularly on the high tides through tonight, Friday and into Saturday.


With Alfred's path slowing down overnight, there will be further impacts to the Northern Rivers.


"The main impacts of the system slowing down are two-fold. Firstly, we're going to have an extended and more prolonged period of significant and major wave heights leading to significant coastal erosion. Some of our offshore buoys have exceeded wave heights in excess of 10 meters, and that energy is going to continue to impact all of our beaches in north east New South Wales and far south east Queensland, leading to major coastal erosion.



"The other impact of this system slowing down means we're going to have a longer and prolonged period of heavy rainfall, particularly in north east New South Wales. We've already seen widespread heavy falls through there, and that's going to continue right through Thursday, Friday and Saturday.


"This means major flooding is likely for many rivers in north east New South Wales, and could even see moderate to major flooding in parts of South East Queensland as well."


Dean mentioned some of the heavier falls in northern NSW were Dorrigo (west of Coffs Harbour) 237mm, Meldrum (west of Dorrigo) 235mm and Mullumbimby 168mm, and they are likely to see more heavy rainfall in the coming days.


Lismore received 31.6mm at Lismore Airport to 9am today and 16mm since 9 o'clock, Terania Creek 134mm and Goonengerry 129mm.


The forecast for today is for around 50mm for Lismore and 100mm for Ballina and coastal communities.


Friday is still the wettest forecast day with rainfall between 70 to 150mm, and another 15 to 80mm on Saturday at this stage.


The BOM still has major flooding for the Wilsons River and modertae to major flooding for most river sytems in the Northern Rivers.


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