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Tropical Cyclone Alfred update: Brisbane crossing early Friday

The Lismore App

Simon Mumford

04 March 2025, 9:11 PM

Tropical Cyclone Alfred update: Brisbane crossing early FridayIssued at 5:59 am AEDT Wednesday 5 March 2025 by the Bureau of Meteorology

There have been no surprises with Tropical Cyclone Alfred's path in the last 24 hours. The landfall crossing is slightly further south, with the Bureau of Meteorology saying Brisbane is the likely location with the crossing likely at 2am on Friday morning, give an hour or two either side.


As was stated yesterday, significant impacts are expected over large areas away from the landfall point, especially on the southern side of the cyclone, so Northern NSW.



Christie Johnson, a senior meteorologist at the Bureau of Meteorology said Alfred is still a Category 2 system that is currently 500km east of Brisbane, over the Coral Sea.


There are a number of warnings in place for Lismore and Northern NSW.


"A tropical cyclone warning is current for communities from the Queensland border south to just north of Grafton.


"A severe weather warning has also been issued for the Northern Rivers area, as well as parts of the mid north coast and the northern table lands due to the expected heavy to intense rainfall and damaging to destructive winds. So that heavy rainfall is expected to start to develop on Thursday, with intense rain coming late Thursday night or early Friday morning, which may lead to life threatening flash flooding, especially around the east-facing slopes of the Northern Rivers and the northern Tablelands.



"Damaging winds are expected to develop today, but destructive winds with gusts up to possibly around 150 kilometers an hour more are possible in areas north of Grafton, late on Thursday and early on Friday.


"A coastal hazard warning stretches from the Queensland border all the way down to the mid north coast, around Forster for abnormally high tides and damaging surf, and a hazardous surf warning extends down to the Illawarra today and will extend to the Eden coast on Thursday. So this means dangerous conditions on the foreshore and out on the water, and it does mean dangerous conditions for activities such as swimming, boating and fishing.


"There's also marine wind warnings with a storm force wind warning for the Byron coast, gale warnings for the Macquarie coast and a strong wind warning for the Hunter coast.


"Flooding is also possible from later today, as rain increases and a flood watch is current for the Northern Rivers and mid north coast areas with widespread moderate to major flooding. Moderate to major flooding may develop from Thursday in the Flood Watch area, and we're also expecting possible flash flooding, and also high tides and large waves are expected to increase the flood risk and the impact in low lying coastal areas."



Christie said that our Wednesday outlook is to expect winds to increase along the coastal fringe and then extend inland as the day progresses.


"Within the tropical cyclone warning area, we also will start to see showers and isolated thunderstorms on and near the coast becoming heavier at times later today, and large waves and hazardous coastal conditions will continue as we move into tomorrow, Thursday, we will see the damaging to destructive winds developing as the tropical cyclone approaches.


"These are sustained winds that can cause significant damage to property and vegetation. We'll also see that heavy to intense rainfall developing and isolated thunderstorms. So we'll likely to see flash flooding, and then as totals build, riverine flooding developing as well. And of course, those large waves and hazardous coastal conditions that will continue once the tropical cyclone makes landfall.


"Following landfall, the danger isn't over. We will continue to see heavy rain and significant winds persisting and extending inland and down the New South Wales coast, and of course, flooding impacts will continue over the weekend and into early next week."


Lismore has recorded 11.4mm to 9am on Tuesday and 9.6mm to 8am today (Wednesday) at Lismore Airport. The forecast is still for 35mm to 140mm on Thursday, 35 to 150mm on Friday and 25 to 100mm on Saturday before an easing on Sunday 2 to 30mm.



You can stay up to date with the latest weather information from The Bureau via the Lismore App Weather or directly through their website http://www.bom.gov.au/index.php.


There will be another report later today following the 12:30pm media briefing at NSW SES Northern Rivers Headquarters in Goonellabah.


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