Northern NSW is likely to get slightly less than average rainfall over November, December, and January, says Hugh McDowell, climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology.

“Something in the range of 2 to 300mm, the average is 3 to 400mm, so it is a little bit subdued. We could get a bit more, we might get a bit less, but it does give us hope that it will see something a bit more normal as we go into summer.”

McDowell says the predictions are for an average rainfall this summer. We are, he says, in an El Nino, which doesn't have a strong link to severe thunderstorms. But he says we should be prepared for bushfires and heatwaves. 

With a flood prone place like Lismore, he says “it's always prudent to be prepared for the risk of flood, but the forecast is nothing like we have seen in recent years. It was very strongly biased to wet conditions over the last three years and La Nina conditions. We are expecting something closer to normal. It doesn't rule out the chance of flooding with the rest of spring and the start of summer, but the chance is lower than it would normally be in a normal year, much lower than the last three years.”

McDowell, says that the climate drivers at the moment show El Nino and also a positive Indian Ocean dipole. “Into the spring season at the moment they often bring warmer and drier weather. We've seen that through winter and early spring.

"Everything is dried out. We are seeing serious to severe rainfall deficiencies and dry, warm conditions. The long-range forecast for the rest of spring shows we are likely to see below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures that will continue into the end of spring. But the El Nino Southern oscillation as it continues through summer is expected to weaken into the autumn and have less of an impact on rainfall as we go into the summer months."

"The positive Indian Ocean dipole usually decays as the monsoons come south. So with those things in mind, it gives us confidence in the long-range forecast, which shows a more neutral signal for rainfall across Northern NSW into the summer season. It shows more of an average signal as we go through the summer months.”

But, he says, it doesn't completely rule out severe thunderstorms. “And if you get severe thunderstorms and they line up in the wrong place, then that does give you a risk of flash flooding. Actually, dry conditions can make the risk of flash flooding worse because they make everything hard and then when you get a load of rainfall on hard ground it just runs off it like concrete. That is a slight concern.”

Much more concern for the rest of this spring is the risk of bushfires. “It is elevated from normal. It is too early to say what the risk of bushfires is for the summer, but heatwaves are a big concern. We have got something like 3 to 4 times the chance of seeing unusually warm conditions and heatwaves are actually Australia's most deadly natural hazard."

"More people die from heatwaves than bushfires and flooding combined. So the risk of heatwaves should be taken seriously this summer and people should be prepared for that and have a bit of a plan. If we do see periods of extended heat, try and keep houses cool, make sure that aircon and fans are working. Or just get out of the heat and go to a local shopping centre in the afternoon and use someone else's air conditioning to cool down."

The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting a warm 29-degree day in Lismore today and 33 tomorrow (Monday) before a cool southwesterly change comes and lowers temperatures by 10 degrees for Tuesday, a top of 23 is expected.