After experiencing one of the top five driest and hottest springs on record, the long range forecast for summer is – no surprise – hot and dry as well. 

The Bureau of Meterology (BoM) has released its 2019/20 Summer Outlook forecast and the climate outlook shows a high likelihood of warmer than average days and nights for most of the country, while rainfall is likely to be below average for large parts of the nation's east.

BoM’s head of long-range forecasts Dr Andrew Watkins said we have fairly high odds getting about 80% of a drier than normal summer and also very high odds of above 80% of warmer days and nights in NSW.

Dr Watkins said Australia's outlook was being influenced by one of Australia's main climate drivers – the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). 

"The key culprit is one of the strongest positive IOD events on record," Dr Watkins said.

"A positive IOD means we have cooler than average water pooling off Indonesia, and this means we see less rain-bearing weather systems, and warmer than average temperatures for large parts of the country.

Bureau of Meterology's rainfall outlook for the month of December.

"The positive IOD means we're also expecting a delayed onset for the northern monsoon, one of the key drivers for tropical rainfall during the summer months.

"At this stage we're expecting the onset of the northern monsoon by mid-summer, which should see the odds for closer to average rainfall increasing from January and into February."

 “Spring has been hot and dry we’ve seen one of the top five driest Springs on record and one of the top five warmest springs on record.

“We’ve also had a lot of dust blowing in from inland Australia and of course the smoke and bushfire as well.”

Dr Watkins said the outlook was an important reminder for communities to be alert to the potential severe weather risks over the coming months.

"We've already seen significant bushfire activity during spring, and the outlook for drier and warmer than average conditions will maintain that heightened risk over the coming months.

"This outlook also means the risk of heatwaves is increased, so it's important the community stays up to date with the latest information and advice from authorities and the Bureau's heatwave forecasts and warnings.

Bureau of Meterology's rainfall outlook for January.

"Even with a drier than average outlook, localised flooding remains a risk under particular meteorological conditions such as thunderstorms, and of course communities in the north need to be prepared at this time of year for tropical cyclones."

For more information on Australia's severe weather risks visit: bom.gov.au/knowyourweather

For more information from the Bureau of Meterology, visit http://www.bom.gov.au/?ref=logo

What about the rest of the country?

The climate outlook shows a high likelihood of warmer than average days and nights for most of the country.

Only coastal areas of Western Australia, stretching from the Midwest to the Kimberley are showing increased odds of wetter than average conditions.

NSW spring summary

The preliminary spring summary for New South Wales - as a whole - was dry.

Despite some rain around Bourke in early November and in the northeast late in spring, the far northeast was particularly dry.

Days were warmer than average especially in the northeast, but nights were closer to average.

A blast of extreme heat in late November increased fire danger and broke spring temperature records in the southeast.

Large fires, persistent smoke and dust storms were features of the season. 

Bureau of Meterology's rainfall outlook for January to March.

National spring summary

Victoria, South Australia and Queensland also experienced one of the five driest springs on record and it was one of Western Australia's warmest and driest springs on record.

Victoria

In Victoria, rainfall was close to average around Melbourne and near the southwest coast.

Days were warmer than average for most of the State, with record hot spring weather late in November.

A blast of extreme heat in late November increased fire danger and broke spring temperature records at many sites.

Cool nights were common, and the State's spring mean minimum temperature is on track to be the lowest since 2003.

Queensland

Queensland was especially dry in the southeast, but rainfall was close to average in the southwest.

Days were warmer than average for most of the State, but nights were cooler than average in many areas.

Overall the southeast had a warmer than average spring but the far north was cooler than average.

South Australia 

Days were warmer than average, especially in the west, but nights were colder than average in parts of the southeast.

A blast of extreme heat in late November increased fire danger and broke spring temperature records in southern districts.

Tasmania

Frequent gusty westerly winds meant western Tasmania had a cool and wet spring, but days in the east were warmer than average.

Nights were cooler than average for much of the State.

A blast of extreme heat in late November increased fire danger and broke spring temperature records 

Western Australia

Maximum temperatures record warm across almost the whole State, and the Western Australia mean maximum temperature is on track to break the previous spring record.

Numerous sites had their hottest spring day around the middle of November.

Rainfall was well below average for most of the State, although the Pilbara picked up some rain toward the end of November.

Northern Territory

November days were warmer than usual in the Northern Territory, and record warm in parts of the northwest.

Nights were much cooler than average in the southeast, but warmer than average in the northwest.

Rainfall was below average over most of the Territory, although there was rain into the northwest late in the month.