We are 11 weeks away from the NSW State Election, which some would argue is a little too early to write about. However, this election is vital for the Lismore community as we continue the rebuild of our city post-February 28, 2022.

The widespread consensus is that the sitting Member for Lismore, Labor's Janelle Saffin, will hold the seat through boundary redistribution which strengthens her margin and the work she has put into the community post-natural disaster including her advocacy work to the state and federal governments.

The 2023 NSW State Elections will be a race between the three leading candidates, Janelle Saffin, the National's Alex Rubin and The Greens Adam Guise.

In 2019, Janelle Saffin won the seat of Lismore on preferences from The Greens Sue Higginson with the National's candidate Austin Curtin winning the primary vote with 19,104 votes or 39.68%. Janelle Saffin was second with 12,328 or 25.61% and Sue Higginson third with 11,693 or 24.29%.

Conservative Independent Greg Bennett won 2,530 or 5.25% of the primary vote, some suggested stealing votes away from Austin Curtin. Although Mr Curtin was only distributed 768 votes through preferences when Mr Bennett's campaign ended, Janelle Safin received 350 votes.

When Sue Higginson's election was over, Janelle Saffin was distributed 8,998 votes through preferences to Austin Curtain's 618 votes giving Ms Saffin a win by 1,146 votes (51.35% to 48.65%) a margin of 1.3%.

Well-respected ABC political analyst Antony Green has forecast the boundary redistribution, which means the town of Federal will be included in the Lismore electorate, should increase Ms Saffin's margin to 2%.

(The new Lismore electoral boundaries with the updated redistribution shown in yellow and highlighted with the green arrow. This includes the town of Federal)

Mr Green also predicts first preference drops for the Nationals Alex Rubin (0.8%), Janelle Saffin (0.2% and growth of 0.8% to The Greens Adam Guise.

What is not known yet, but with a clearing picture, is the population reduction since the February 28 natural disaster. The current enrolment numbers against the quota from the last election (including the new redistribution) is minus 2.45% s of 1 January 2023.

On a local level, Graham Askey is a 'local psephologist' (or election analyst). Graham's analysis of the seat of Lismore is below:

"Until 2019 the state seat of Lismore had always been held by the Country/National party except for one term by Labor's Keith Compton in 1959-1962.

"A commonly held view is that Labor's win in 2019 was caused by Greg Bennett splitting the conservative vote. That was not entirely the case. Changing demographics over a generation has in fact meant that Lismore should have been a Labor or Green seat for some time but for the optional preferential voting system splitting the left's vote.

"Had Greg Bennett not been on the ballot Janelle Saffin would still have won, albeit very narrowly.

"Alex Rubin probably won't be hampered this time by a rival conservative but is still unlikely to beat Saffin because; she has been favoured by a redistribution, will probably benefit from a statewide swing to Labor, and has the benefit of incumbency.

"Rubin's best chance would be for Adam Guise to get ahead of Saffin because Labor voters don't preference as tightly as Green voters.

"If a new state Labor government were to revert to compulsory preferential voting then all three Northern Rivers seats would become safe for the left. Even with optional preferential voting Labor could well win Tweed."

A lot can happen in 11 weeks of electioneering. While sitting member for Lismore Janelle Saffin is favourite, there is optimism from The Greens with Adam Guise and can you count out the National's Alex Rubin given the seats historic conservative nature?