The NSW SES has 24 'prepare to evacuate' orders for various communities in the Northern Rivers and the Mid North Coast as we head into the day with the most impact from Tropical Cyclone Alfred.

Two of those were in the Ballina CBD and Fawcett Street, Kyogle as reported last night, with Coraki, Woodburn and Bungawalbin added this afternoon.

In Lismore, the NSW SES says the Wilsons River is expected to exceed the minor flood level of 4.2m later this evening and may reach major flood level during Friday with forecast rainfall of 70mm to 150mm. At 3.42pm, it was 1.35m and steady.

Other town centres in the Northern Rivers are on major flood watch, such as Kyogle, Casino, Coraki, Bungawalbin, Woodburn and Wiangaree.

Premier Chris Minns was in Lismore for today's regular briefing. Along with Member for Lismore Janelle Saffin, "we are prepared" was the key message. That was reenforced by the fact that 2000 SES volunteers are ready to serve the community across the Northern Rivers plus the numerous high clearance vehicles, boats and air support.

The Bureau of Meteorology mentioned a key variable in its recent update at midday as Alfred approaches the coast, and that is another stall just off the coast before landfall.

"There's more time for these rainfall totals to build and push onto the coast. And so, in terms of rainfall figures, we are still expecting to see those accumulated rainfall totals between 400 and 800mm. But higher isolated falls are possible, as you've seen, depending on how that system does move and how quickly or slowly it crosses the coast," Senior Meteorologist Jonathon How said.

(A rainfall map from the BOM earlier today)

Premier Minns wanted people to know the threat is not over, given the lull in weather activity, and asked everyone to do everything they can to prepare for the landfall crossing.

"Alfred, at the moment, is behaving a bit like a completely unwanted house guest. He has told us that it's going to be late, but linger even longer, and unfortunately, that means the window for destruction in our community, heavy rains, winds, powerful surf is longer than we would have otherwise liked.

"As a result of that, we're going to need the local community, we're going to be leaning on the local community, this resilient, tough, defiant community in the Northern Rivers, to do their bit. Very important that you prepare your house, particularly for loose items in the yard, on the roof, to make sure that it's not a, effectively a weapon that can fly as a result of high winds. Keep your documents together. Download the Hazards Near Me app. Never, ever drive through flood waters, put yourself in danger and an SES volunteer."

"Regrettably, this town has gone through a lot in the last few years, and they know how to prepare for these natural disasters, but we're counting on them in the next few hours."

Alfred stalling in the Coral Sea for 12 hours last night has given communites more time prepare. This was reiterated by Acting Superintendent Stuart Fisher from the NSW SES. He said, today will be their last day to prepare their properties.

"Should they wish to stay, if they don't feel safe, then they should think about moving out, and tomorrow will be that day for that decision after that when, as I said before, when the storm hits, and particularly those high winds that will bring down trees and power lines, it may stop the egress of them coming or getting out, and for us to actually get in and to assist them.

"I cannot stress enough that this is a significant weather event. It is not like 2022 where we had a single event. We've had beach erosion, and which is occurring now. We'll have the very strong to dangerous and destructive winds over the next 24 to 48 hours, followed by those the torrential rain should that stall over land, we are predicting anywhere between the moment 300 to 400 mil of rain, but if it stalls, it will see an increase in the rainfall for around 600 to 700 mil of rain, which will cause, again, significant flooding on many of the river systems up and down the coast.

"We have currently issued over 300,000 sandbags, and there are still more to come. But again, today is the final day we believe for you to prepare your homes, and if you cannot prepare the homes, you feel unsafe to leave and leave by tomorrow."

Lismore Mayor Steve Krieg said he was proud to see early preparation and felt we are so much better off now than in 2022.

"And that is heartening," he said, "But I want to stress to everyone that this is just the very start of what we're about to face, and so heed the warnings, critical that you heed the warnings. Don't put others in danger because you want to become an environmental tourist or take some of these selfies putting yourself in harm's way. Heed the warning, stay at home, protect your loved ones, and please stay safe. That's the most important thing. We need to get through this weather event together so that everyone is safe and well."

Senator Tony Sheldon, the federal government's Special Envoy for Disaster Recovery, spoke about the Early Release Funds that was announced by the Prime Minister Anthony Albanese earlier today.

"To deal with the funding that's needed to make sure that we are dealing with the responses to the emergency that we're presently facing, will mean that councils and individual residents will be able to get early release of funds.

"It's the first time it's been done, and it's an important step in making sure that the community knows that all of us, both locally, community groups, the Premier and the Prime Minister, we are one, and we're going to be on the front foot in this event as it's arriving, and we're going to be at the front foot for the recovery afterwards.

"We know there'll be more work to be done after that, and we'll take those steps as necessary as the Premier and Prime Minister decide through their consultation with community."

The Early Release Funds give councils reassurance that the money they spend on infrastructure repair in Alfred's aftermath will be an upfront payment rather than waiting up to two years to be reimbursed by the state government.

The Prime Minister mentioned $1 million this morning, but the Premier did clarify far more is available to each council, as well as an amount for individuals that need help.

"It's really important that we get the message across. This is just the beginning. We know the scale of potential impacts as a result of these natural disasters. When we're prepared to walk, we want to walk the path with the Northern Rivers community, the people of Lismore in the event of the worst case scenario happening. The last three years you wouldn't wish it on your worst enemy. It's been a complete nightmare for the people of Lismore, but they are tough, incredibly resilient. They're optimistic about the future in all circumstances, and we're going to be relying on them in the days ahead."

Kevin Hogan, Federal Member for Page reminded the community that this weather event is different to 2022.

"This is going to be different because of the wind. But I just want to repeat a couple of rainfall statistics that may happen, just so everyone can get their head around this, because we understand these 200 to 400 mils is going to be quite widespread, we get that, but we don't know exactly where yet, but there are going to be local falls in excess of 700 millimetres of rain in certain areas and certain catchments.

"That means the upper levels of what is expected may well happen. So, we've had time. But for anyone who hasn't, you have basically about 12 hours to further prepare. So that means, if you've lifted up, but you think you should have actually taken it physically higher, do that.

"If you're thinking about leaving your home because you think you may or maybe should, leave it now, because we don't know exactly where these in excess of 700 millimetre falls are going to be, but they're going to happen, and they're going to happen in certain catchments, and you have to prepare for that.

"So prepare for the worst, and we are all hoping and praying for the best, but you must prepare for the worst. And the worst is it's going to be as bad as we've ever seen, so you need to take precautions."

When asked about the Lismore over topping, Premier Minns said, "There's not a prediction on that yet. I mean, if I'm going to be really candid about it. It's right at that level. But we've seen these storm fronts before, and I think Kevin's point is a good one, and it's well taken. There may be very intense, isolated rainfalls of up to 700 mils in particular areas. We're not sure whether it will fall directly in the Lismore catchment or not. So the best thing to do, as we've been saying for the entire week, is to prepare for the worst and hope for the best. And that's certainly what the SES has done over the last two weeks, and also Lismore council as well."

Kyogle, is another town that is right in the firing line of Alfred's rage. The word is that Kyogle is likely to receive its second largest ever flood, above the 2008 level.

"If you look at some of the flood modeling, we're obviously concerned about it, that's why we're all here, and we've deployed resources. But I would just urge everybody to follow the Hazards Near Me app that will provide you with the latest information. That information may change, but the direction from the government and the SES will not. If you're under a prepare to evacuate order, it means exactly as it says, you should prepare for the event of evacuating, if the weather turns and it hits that community in a particular way. But until that happens, we're not going to make the call."

February 28 2022 saw the SES 132 500 number and 000 fall over under the volume of calls made by people needing help and concerned family members and friends. How has this been improved in 2025?

"We've put significant capacity into the emergency communications network for exactly these kinds of natural disasters. Look, I don't want to hypothecate about what could go wrong. I think we need to approach the gathering storm in a calm, methodical way, listen to the information and communication that's being communicated by the SES in particular, and if that happens and people follow the information that's being provided, I'm confident that we can weather this storm, but it's going to take all of us to do it."

The Premiere mentioned that there are approximately 10,000 to 15,000 homes that are subject to a prepare to evacuate orders at the moment.

"That number may rise, and eventually evacuation orders may go out over a larger area. Now there's a couple of variables that the SES have already spoken about. Firstly, they want those evacuation orders to go out during daylight hours, which means they may preference it slightly earlier than they ordinarily would have, so that you're not getting an evacuation order at one o'clock in the morning like you did in 2022.

"So trying to learn to get best practice in place, make sure there's clear communications, but the storm path will change in the days ahead. We want to make sure the public's got up to date information."