There has been a great deal of speculation about Lismore's population since the February 2022 big flood.

Approximately 4,000 people were evacuated on that fateful day. We all know people or families who were moved into emergency accommodation outside of the LGA and decided to stay, sold their flood-affected house and moved outside of the area or received a Resilient Homes House Buyback (575 at last count) through the NSWRA (Reconstruction Authority) and relocated to another town.

The popular guess was the Lismore Population had reduced to around 40,000, down from the census data of 45,938 from August 2021.

There have been two statistic estimates that offer more believable population data in the last two weeks.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released a population estimate from June 2023. It showed Lismore's population at 43,907, which is 2,031 less than the census data.

Lismore often likes to compare its population to Ballina's because it was the most populous town/city in the Northern Rivers before being overtaken by Ballina five years ago. Ballina's estimated population is 47,279.

As the Lismore City Council Elections are on this Saturday, the NSW Electoral Commission released the number of registered voters. The numbers are only for registered voters 18+, but we can compare that to the December 2021 elections.

As of the end of August, there were 31,717 registered voters. In 2021, there were 31,531 electors. The increase is only small, but it is an increase nonetheless.

The unknown factor in this instance is how many registered voters have not changed their details with the NSW Electoral Commission. This will be discovered after the election as you can only vote in your LGA in person or by postal vote.

It does appear that the Lismore population has decreased following the events of February 2022. However, the losses were not as pronounced as some people thought. We can be optimistic about Lismore's future population as the flood rebuild continues. More plans are revealed, such as the new St Vincent's Hospital, the nearly 500 homes announced under the Resilient Homes program, with more to come, and the potential for medium-density housing on the fringe of the floodplain.

What was it that Kevin Costner said in Fields of Dreams? Build it, and they will come.