The latest CoreLogic real estate data for regional Australia was released this week, which included a specific one-page report for Lismore.

It is not often that the Lismore real estate market leads a nationwide study, but this study showed that the Lismore real estate market is alive and kicking like a prized stallion.

CoreLogic analysed Australia's largest 50 non-capital city Significant Urban Areas (SUAs), examining performance across dwelling values and rents. For the 12 months to February 2024, Lismore had the largest increase in dwelling sales, recording a 103% rise compared to the previous 12 month period. This was the highest number of houses sold in the Lismore LGA in the last 10 years, with 903 dwellings changing hands.

It is not certain whether the NSW Reconstruction Authority House Buybacks are represented in the 903 dwellings. However, it would be safe to assume a portion of the sales would be included from March 2023 to February 2024.

As the one-page snapshot below shows, Lismore's median value is $488,285, and rents are, on average, $553 per week. In percentage terms, that is an increase of 49.3% in the last five years, with rents increasing 33.6%.

Dwelling sales in February 2024 were 103.5% higher than in February 2023, the highest increase of the 50 markets.

An interesting component of the data is the price range where the most sales occurred (above right).

The most dwellings sold were in the $200,000 to $400,000 (36.5%) price bracket, followed by the $400,000 and $600,000 (27.2%) price brackets. This means 63.7% of all dwellings sold were under $600,000, and, given the price range, a large portion must be on the Lismore floodplain.

This begs the question: Are all new buyers, both first-time homeowners and investors, aware of the risks they are taking, and will they be excluded from future government aid?

The Lismore App spoke to local Real Estate agent Andrew Gordon from R Gordon and Son.

"Everyone knows they're buying in the floodplain; it's called material fact. So, when you see an ad advertisement from a real estate agent, it will have the word material fact written in it, and it says this property was affected by the 2022 event," Andrew explained.

"Now, if you look at the sales, 36% of the sales are in that 200 to 400 range. Why is that? Well, it's easy because we're a low-demographic wage earner. That's what it is. What you're seeing is people within that demographic, all of a sudden, post-event being handed a lifeline.

"They see affordability come back into the picture, and they are prepared to take the risk. That's what it is. The great Australian dream is alive and well.

"That 36 per cent is made up of probably two groups of people. Those who might invest, seeing the opportunity for capital growth, as well as return, and those who are looking for the first home buyer market. And I'd imagine, out of that 36 per cent, I'd reckon 80 per cent would fall into the category of first home buyer. They're seeking to fulfil the great Australian dream, and that's to own their own home.

"This event has handed them that lifeline. Prior to the flood, those houses probably would have bought $500,000 to $600,000, which was outside their range. If they're paying 250, they're spending 150 on it. All of a sudden, they're back in the ballpark."

When we talk about risk, there are two trains of thought. One group will say that another severe weather event will lead to another large Lismore flood, putting those people left on the floodplain at high risk once gain. The other group will argue that February 2022 was a one-in-500 or one-in-2,500-year event, so it will not occur anytime soon.

"We hear that all the time," Andrew Gordon said, "Council themselves, in a briefing, said it's a one in 10,000 year event. I've been to several flood forums where people have said it's a one-in-3,500-year event. People are proportioning risk.

"Housing on the flood plains existed since the late 1800s, and people who have invested and lived on the flood plains accepted the risk. We've had one event which was traumatic, it was devastating, but there's been one, and people are sort of saying, well, I'm hoping that I won't see the next event, at that level. We all know that there's probably a '74 flood or low to moderate flooding in the future, but they're hoping that they will outlive another '22 event."

Part of the risk of living in the floodplain is not only risk-to-life, it is the risk of financial hardship or ruin. Flood insurance is virtually non-existent, or the premiums are so high that a low-income family cannot afford it, while another potentially 13 or 14-metre flood would cause a great deal of damage that would cost tens of thousands of dollars or close to one hundred thousand dollars to fix.

(A Keen Street, South Lismore house for sale for $359,000)

"It is part of that risk. Look, I think that risk is trumped by the fact that people do want that opportunity to put a roof over the heads of their family. And I think people will say they accept the risk to fulfil that. I guess it's a parent's obligation to look after their family."

The million-dollar question is what financial help would the government offer if Lismore did see another 14-metre flood, given that people knowingly bought the family home on the flood plain, understanding the risk.

The Lismore App approached the NSW Reconstruction Authority to clarify its position regarding what financial help it would offer, if any, when the next severe weather event occurs. However, at the time of writing, no response was received.

Of course, this is a what-if scenario. Who knows which government will be in power when the next severe weather event occurs and what impact flood mitigation will have on the remaining properties on the floodplain. TBC.