Lismore has bucked the national rental vacancy rate and rental growth trend but not in a good way when compared to the latest national figures released by Core Logic on Monday.

CoreLogic’s Quarterly Rental Review for Q3 2023 shows rental values rose 1.6% over the quarter, down from the 2.2% rise seen in the June quarter and a full percentage point below the recent peak rate recorded over the three months to April (2.6%). This took the annual pace of growth down from a revised peak of 9.6% in the previous 12 months to 8.4% in the year to September.

However, a continued shortfall in rental listings saw the national vacancy rate reduce to a new record low of 1.1% in September as the total count of national rental listings fell to its lowest level since early November 2012.

In Lismore, there were 46 rental properties on the market after a quick Google and the trend according to three local real estate agents is downward.

Andrew Gordon from R Gordon Real Estate told the Lismore App that in 2021 there would be 89 people turn up to an open home for a rental but now you can hold an open house and no one turns up.

"There are a couple of reasons that influence those numbers," Mr Gordon said, "People that used to rent are now living in pods either in or outside of the 2480 postcode or people have moved away from the area."

So does less demand mean less population?

"The statistics say that post a natural disaster, you experience a 10% reduction in population. Lismore was already experiencing a population decrease for the last decade so I would say we are well under 40,000 now."

The last Census data states Lismore's population as 45,938 while in 2016 it was 44,599 and in 2011 44,395.

Neil Scott from Ray White agreed with Mr Gordon about the rental market making a retreat.

"Back in the heat of the market, you'd have 20 people turn it up at an inspection and now you've got four or five. And, they are the usual suspects all around that go from property to property. We've also seen prices retract a bit. I don't know what percentage but prices are probably back 5% from the heat. A $550 property is probably back to $520 now.

"We are renting stuff out but what what I am saying to people is it takes two weeks now, not two days. Our workload is more manageable, we're not flipping through a pile of applications a foot thick anymore, it's much more manageable.

Neil says the rental market situation could be for a number of reasons.

"It could be that people are moving in together now. So, instead of you and me being living in separate properties it will now be that brothers, sisters, friends, and relatives are all living together. So, the cost of living in general as people try to save money."

"Employment. A lot of that demographic of employment was lost in the flood. So, you've got those people now sort of finding ways to make ends meet better."

Over at Wal Murray, a Property Manager is experiencing the same supply issues.

"We're seeing a drop in rental prices of between $10 and $20 per week. Two years ago, we would see upwards of 20 people at an open house, now we're lucky to have 10, usually below that number."

With the population decreasing are we seeing people move to Lismore?

"We did have one recent client who was moving back to the area."

Neil Scott has also sold some homes to people moving back into the area.

"I've got one settling tomorrow with people from Sydney. I just sold one in Goonellabah to a family from here but had been living in Brisbane. They're coming back. I've been trying to help some people from Lake Macquarie to come back to the area, retired and coming back. There are still people coming from out of town. It's not all, let's not get near Lismore. But mind you, there is obviously what I call the non-locals, you know, people who haven't been here for at least 10 years that haven't got a deep root connection through their work or family or what have you, they've disappeared. Tenterfield I've heard the word Tenterfield mentioned by a lot of people in that way."

What a difference two years makes. Peak COVID-19, prices were skyrocketing and you were lucky to get a rental, now post-flood, rentals are easy to get for those with a strong tenancy record and the prices are dropping. Lismore has seen a great deal in that short time span.