Regional NSW is no longer a reprieve for Sydneysiders looking to escape skyrocketing rents in the city, with affordability in the regions hitting record lows, according to the tenth annual National Shelter-SGS Economics and Planning Rental Affordability Index released today.

On a broader Regional NSW perspective, low-income earners are bearing the brunt of the rental crisis, with single JobSeekers facing Extremely Unaffordable rents, with 69 per cent of their income going towards rent. Single part-time workers on parent benefits are also struggling with Extremely Unaffordable rents, sacrificing 56 per cent of their income to rent.

The average rental household in regional NSW is now paying almost 30 per cent of the gross income of $89,977 if renting at the median rate. Renting in regional NSW straddles the border between Moderately Unaffordable and Unaffordable, with a RAI (Rental Affordability Index) score of 101.

The rental affordability index scores areas based on median rental prices and the average income of rental households within the capital city or rest of state area’. A score of 100 indicates households spend 30 per cent of income on rent, the critical threshold level for housing stress. A lower score is worse.

The scales used in the index are a score of:

• 50 or less indicates extremely unaffordable rents
• 51-80 indicates severely unaffordable rents
• 81-100 indicates unaffordable rents
• 101-120 indicates moderately unaffordable rents
• 121-150indicates acceptable rents
• 150 or more indicates affordable rents

CEO of Shelter NSW John Engeler said: “The regional rental market is spiralling out of control, with people across the state struggling to afford to keep a roof over their head. What was once affordable is now out of reach.

“The regions used to be seen as an affordable alternative for Sydneysiders to escape to when city rents became unaffordable. But this is not the case, especially for regional residents on local wages. This is not sustainable and will only get worse as these regional populations grow.

“We are urging the NSW Government to provide more social housing, that is, public and community housing for low-income people, and restore the social housing safety net to 5 per cent of all housing stock by 2027, working towards a goal of 10 per cent of all housing by 2040.“

“Renters deserve stable and secure long-term housing. While we commend the NSW Government for its reform to make renting fairer, we now need it to commit to delivering substantial numbers of genuinely affordable rental housing for low to average-income households. We also need urgent action to wind back the short-term rental market. The stock of private rental properties has been gutted in many regional cities and towns, leaving local people with no option but to leave.”

The greatest affordability decline in regional NSW has been seen along coastal areas such as Tweed Heads, Port Macquarie and Coffs Harbour, as well as inland areas such as Orange and Dubbo. Before the Covid-19 pandemic, these areas shifted from Affordable to Moderately Unaffordable and Unaffordable.

In the Northern Rivers, Byron Bay has been found to be one of the least affordable suburbs across the entire country, with the entire coastline of NSW offering Moderately Unaffordable rents.

(The map for the average rental household income)

If you were a dual-income couple with children, Byron is classified as Moderately Unaffordable, while a minimum wage couple is Severely Unaffordable. Any other scenario is Extremely Unaffordable, with RAI scores between 29 and 58.

Lismore RAI scores were better than Byron Bay, which is not difficult; however, the index shows Lismore has its own problems.

The only scenario where renting is Very Affordable is dual income with children (RAI of 234).

A minimum-wage couple finds renting in Lismore Acceptable (RAI 130).

A single couple with children (114) is Moderately Unaffordable, as is a pensioner couple (94), someone earning the average rental household income (106) and a hospitality worker (114).

(The pensioner couple renting map)

The worst-case scenario is a single part-time worker parent on benefits (58). For them, Lismore is Extremely Unaffordable.

You can use the map to view rental affordability for income and the number of bedrooms.

Using the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census data from 2021 is misleading because the average income was $1,202 per week ($62,400 p/y), and the average rent was $300 per week.

A single person earning $60,000 a year would find it Moderately Unaffordable to rent a 1-bedroom unit in Lismore. Meaning they would be paying more than 30% of their income on rent. It becomes Acceptable at $70,000.

2-bedroom properties become Acceptable at $90,000 income per year, while 3-bedrooms require an income of $115,000 per year, and 4-bedrooms $140,000 per year.

The general rule of thumb is anywhere near the coast is mostly Unaffordable, apart from the dual income with children. Byron is still unaffordable.

The further west you go, the more affordable renting gets. If people were finding it financially difficult to rent in Lismore, a move 45 minutes to Kyogle would put them in the Acceptable category. However, that could be away from family and friends.

The two categories that are finding it difficult to rent anywhere are a pensioner couple and a single part-time worker parent on benefits.

Ellen Witte Principal at SGS Economics & Planning said, “There are very few affordable long-term rentals on offer, pushing households to the brink of homelessness. This is a serious problem that needs to be urgently addressed by the NSW Government.

“We need to rapidly expand social and affordable housing and strengthen renters’ rights. Rental affordability in the regions is a serious issue that needs urgent intervention.”

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to know that the answer lies in the housing supply. A variety of housing is needed as soon as possible, so social, affordable and the traditional four-bedroom house on a 600-800 sqm block out of flood.

You also don't have to be a rocket scientist to know the situation will not change quickly. The Lismore and Northern Rivers communities know only too well how slow the wheels of government turn.