Simon Mumford
15 December 2024, 8:00 PM
All four flood-affected houses have now been relocated from East Lismore to Mt Pleasant Estate in Goonellabah.
The rooves are on, and all are elevated, with some having concrete driveways already built as part of the early stages of the home renovation.
The NSWRA (Reconstruction Authority) has stated previously that the renovations will be completed to a high standard to fit in with the aesthetics of the area and should be finished by mid-2025.
Back in March this year, the NSWRA's Susie George said they had received over 100 expressions of interest to relocate to the Mt Pleasant Estate. So, there is no shortage of interested flood-affected parties ready to explore their options.
The million-dollar question is around affordability.
At this stage of the process, it is purely speculation, but it is worth getting a professional opinion from a local real estate agent. Andrew Gordon from R Gordon & Son has been in the real estate game for 34 years but has never experienced anything like the Resilient Homes Program.
Andrew Gordon said it is difficult to estimate pricing at this stage as you can only refer to what has been said by the RA.
"Yes, we've heard that it's going to be an extensive renovation, and I hope it's on a Bangalow-type scale. You drive through some of those estates where you've had exactly the same thing happen: older homes moved to a location and done up, and they sell for a million plus or two million. Well, I'm not expecting that sort of level in Lismore, but I'm certainly expecting over the $600,000 mark. I can't see it being any less than that.
"If you look at the average price up there, the mean would be well above $800,000. I'm just not sure these will get to that point. I don't think that's the point of the exercise."
Andrew raises a good point: what is the point of the exercise?
Is it buying the land at Mt Pleasant Estate through the Resilient Lands Program, then moving four homes, renovating them and selling them to flood-affected people going at market price or a reduced price to make them affordable to those people who were at high risk in the floodplain?
If we make the assumption that the average Lismore buyback house was around $500,000, and the removal costs were $120,000, plus another $150,000 to renovate the house, including landscaping, the total cost of the exercise would be $770,000. That is before adding the value of the land.
Just Street currently has a 670sqm steep block for sale at $295,000. However, the average flat block is around the $350,000 mark.
The total cost of purchasing and establishing the house in Mt Pleasant would be around the $1.12 million mark. Of course, if the house was purchased for a market rate of approximately $130,000 (3brm 1 bth), then the total cost would be around the $750,000 price range.
A timber home on Just Street, which could be similar to what is being renovated at Mt Pleasant, sold in October this year for $780,000. It had 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms on a 880sqm block of land.
Would a resident who received a buyback for $500,000 to $550,000 be able to afford a property out of flood for $700,000 to $750,000?
"I don't know how the RA is going to structure that," Andrew explained, "I would have thought there'd be an affordable component to it. To which there's a formula that will dictate a finishing price. But I think regardless, people are going to get a very good home. I'm sure the effort will be made to ensure that it's a very good home. As an example of exactly what you can do, and provide you with a variety of homes.
"You've gotta be careful about pricing. You don't want to devalue your neighbour's homes, and I'm sure the RA is very, very aware of that because that will have shortcomings straight away."
"You would have to believe that even a timber home with a modest renovation up there would have to be worth $700,000. But if they're trying to sell it under the banner of affordable, then I'm not sure what that formula will be."
Eventually, we will know the purchase price of houses in Mt Pleasant Estate and the four relocated homes.
"It comes through the land titles office, and that information becomes public knowledge. So, we'll always be able to tell at some stage. And I'd imagine they'd be on the open market for which there will be a price levied."
As mentioned at the start of this story, this is speculation; however, the reality can not be far off.
Andrew concluded by saying, "I honestly don't know, but I'm very interested to see how it works".
As is the rest of the community.