Another 36mm of rain fell at the Lismore Airport on Friday and Saturday, leaving farmers at a critical juncture for planting this year's winter crops or harvesting macadamia crops.

Rain is a vital element of any farmer's success, but too much can leave them on the verge of little or no harvest, poor winter planting conditions and a growing debt.

January and February gave farmers a beacon of hope, with 128.6mm and 129.4mm, respectively, across the first two months of the year. Then came not only a very wet March (553mm) but Tropical Cyclone Alfred as well. The start of April hasn't seen a let-up in rainfall, with 117mm falling in the first two weeks.

Record crop yields were being talked about, and in the case of macadamia farmers, a notional price increase of around $4.22 p/kg at 33% premium kernel recovery and 10% nut-in-shell moisture content was being paid. On top of that, a forecast 5% year-on-year increase was on the cards.

Paul Mavis's 6,000-tree macadamia farm in Alstonville suffered tree and limb knockdowns with TC Alfred. He started his annual harvest a couple of weeks before Alfred paid the Northern Rivers a visit.

"We've been waiting for the ground to dry out, and then we get more rain. I got some nut up, but everyone else is in the same boat," Paul told the Lismore App.

"If we get back on the ground pretty soon we'll be right, but if we don't, the nut will start germinating, and we'll lose a lot like we did last year. 

Thanks to the 2024 rains, Paul lost about 10 to 15 tonnes of macadamia nut that started to germinate because the ground was too wet to get machinery in and harvest. As for 2025's harvest?

"The limbs and everything I chipped up, there's a lot of nut on them, so it looks like we might get around the same tonnage we got last year 

"We thought this would be an earlier start to the season, but the trees held onto the nut a bit longer. We will lose the same tonnage as last year, but that's if we can get onto the ground in the next couple of weeks. If we can't, then we'll lose a lot more." 

On Andrew Heap's macadamia farm, the risk is higher because his land is steeper, so machinery needs drier conditions to operate the harvesting machinery.

Like Paul, Andrew has chipped trees and removed limbs thanks to Alfred. Unfortunately, unlike Paul, Andrew has not picked up one nut yet. His block is simply too wet. On top of that, he was to have a down year in nut production because his orchard has mature 20-year-old plus trees on it. So, last year's harvest of 30 tonnes was looking like 15 tonnes in 2025. This could be lower if the ground doesn't grow.

Andrew said this would be a similar situation for other orchards in Dunoon, where the blocks are steep and the ground very wet. Andrew's concern, along with germination, is internal discolouration of the kernel.

It has been a hard slog for macca farmer's in the last three years. The 2023 price was only $1.70, rising to $3.20 in 2024, and now around $4.20, but the wet weather makes achieving a profit really difficult.

On the other side of farming, Paul Weir says that grazing and dairy farmers are also suffering from the rains.

"It's affected pasture growth and animal health. They're the two biggest issues for grazing and for dairy," Paul explained.

"For dairy, the low-lying areas and the low parts of farms have seen pasture losses. Pasture die back and set back from rain and silt being on those low-lying parts or farms that have actually flooded in that case.

"It is that time of the year we are trying to plant ryegrass, get set up for winter, and I know some early planting paddocks that people have done got washed out, so there's a lot of seed in those low-lying farms that did that. But it depends on what happens now really as to where the big issues will lie."

Similar to the macadamia industry, more rain could lead to the same result as 2024. 

"It makes it really hard to get winter established, cattle slip backwards, lose condition. Leading into winter pasture growth slows, so a lot of pugging happens at this time of year. Normally we see wet autumns anyway, but either prolonged or just badly timed like last year.

"Last year was a terrible year on the North Coast for dairy production, and we're hoping that we have a better season this year than last year. The timings of the rain last year and the dry spells was just all out of kilter, and wasn't the norm and didn't sort of fit into our normal systems of planting ryegrass in inappropriate times. So, most dairy farms on the north coast have had very big production losses in the last 12 months.

"Less production means less cash flow and the industries in a bit of a tight spot. Most farmers are down about 15 to 20% milk volume. I know that during Cyclone Alfred our cows dropped 4 litres per cow a day. For us that's nearly $700 a day drop in income. It all adds up.

As with every farmer you meet, there is that sense of hope and a little optimism. 

"We're just hoping to see that the season turns around and doesn't continue being this wet. I hope that it goes and we can get onto our normal planning regimes for winter production.

"If it finds up now and we sort of come into a showery April, like normal, April showers is what we always say, we can get great planting conditions. The main growing season now has gone. We are expecting it to start cooling off now, and that's when we just rely on the winter planting."

The forecast for the rest of April was not overly optimistic, with more showers to come; however, the BOM has forecast three days of sunshine for the start of Easter, Good Friday to Easter Sunday at the time of writing. Let's hope our farmers get the weather luck they deserve.