Simon Mumford
02 July 2023, 7:35 AM
Some welcome rain is on the way later today following a very dry June (13.2mm) as Lismore and the Northern Rivers looks unusually light brown, something we haven't seen for the last three years.
Unfortunately, it may not be enough to make a huge difference but at least the sprinklers and hoses can be put on hold for a few days.
Gabrielle from the Bureau of Meteorology said there will be a few coastal showers that may sneak inland tonight and tomorrow morning before the main story arrives in the form of a cloud band from Queensland.
The Queensland trough will spread into NSW on Monday afternoon bringing cold and dreary wintry conditions for a couple of days. Maximum temperatures will be 17 tomorrow and 16 degrees on Tuesday.
As for the rainfall, 2mm at best tomorrow (Monday) with Tuesday looking the wettest, but again, with a wide range of between 2mm to 15mm or 20mm if we are "super lucky" according to Gabrielle. It all depends on where you are and how lucky you are, most parts will receive between 5mm and 10mm.
The reason for the wide range is because most of the rainfall will fall around the tablelands which makes it challenging to forecast how much will reach us.
The cold and dreary conditions won't be with us for long as the trough clears early Wednesday with some lingering showers in the morning before lengthy sunny spells in the afternoon. Wednesday should reach 23 degrees while Thursday a springlike 24 or 25 degrees.
We can expect windy conditions on Thursday, Friday and maybe into next Saturday, as a number of cold fronts bring strong westerly winds.
The Bureau of Meteorology has released their start of the month long-range forecasts with the three months from August to September looking particularly dry.
There is a 46% chance of above-median rainfall (184.3mm for the three months) while the growing part of the equation is a 32% chance of an unusually dry period (less than 104.7mm).
The Bureau has increased the chance of an El Nino event occurring moving from a 'watch' to an 'alert' following climate model forecasts indicating there is approximately a 70% chance of El NiƱo forming in 2023.