It has been wet for so long that it is hard to believe that Lismore and the Northern Rivers dodged a bullet when yesterday's weather event hit Newcastle and the Mid North Coast.

The Orara River, just south of Grafton, has a minor flood warning, but that is as far north as the flooding gets with this weather system.

The Bureau of Meteorology has released its monthly long-term weather forecasts for the winter months. Traditionally, our 'dry' season. However, 2025 has not gone according to historical averages so far, so why would winter be any different?

To date in May, Lismore has received 165.8mm at the airport, well above the May mean (averaged total amount) of 68.8mm with eleven days to go.

The airport's June mean rainfall is 96.4mm. June 2024 recorded 17.8mm. The BOM is forecasting a 52% chance of above-median (mid-point of lowest to highest) rainfall, which is 94.3mm, and a 26% chance of an unusually wet June, which is greater than 186.5mm.

For July, the above-median rainfall (greater than 56.8mm) increases to 58%, and the unusually wet (greater than 146.9mm) percentage drops to 19%. July has a mean of 36.5mm.

When looking at the winter of 2025 in its entirety, the long-term forecast does not fill you with hope for a break in the rain.

The chance of above-median (greater than 250.3mm) is 57%, and the chance of an unusually wet (greater than 368.6mm) is 27%. To give you some perspective, unusually dry (less than 153.8mm) is 8%.

The only silver lining for the winter of 2025 is that it should be warmer than typical. The chance of an above-median maximum temperature (20.4 degrees) is 86%, while an unusually warm maximum temperature (greater than 20.9 degrees) is 43%.

In the short term, a shower or two is the forecast from the BOM for the rest of the week. With a 70% chance of rain, it is more than likely to continue our wet weather pattern.

The short-term silver lining is that no rain is forecast over the weekend at this stage, with partly cloudy weather forecast. Fingers crossed.