As we move into springlike temperatures in the coming days (High pressure system brings warmer weather this week), the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) released their latest 3-month weather outlook.

The BOM has confirmed that a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event is underway and will most likely continue over the coming months. 

A negative IOD typically increases the chance of winter and spring rainfall over much of southern and eastern Australia, along with warmer days than usual in northern Australia. 

The IOD describes a natural climate cycle brought about by sustained changes in the difference between sea surface temperatures of the tropical western and eastern Indian Ocean. 

The Bureau of Meteorology's head of long-range forecasting Dr Andrew Watkins, said that the Bureau's 3-month climate outlook is for above average rainfall for much of Australia, particularly for the central and eastern states. 

"With wet soils, high rivers and full dams, and the outlook for above average rainfall, elevated flood risk remains for eastern Australia," he said.

Communities are encouraged to keep up to date with the latest Bureau forecasts and warnings through the Bureau's website and BOM Weather app and follow the advice of emergency services. This can also be done through the Lismore App Weather & Travel button.

As far as La Nina is concerned, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH, meaning there is around a 50% chance (double the normal likelihood) of La Niña forming later in 2022.

This is a result of current observations and model outlooks. La Niña events increase the chance of above-average winter-spring rainfall across much of northern and eastern Australia.

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ocean indicators are currently at neutral levels. However, some atmospheric indicators, such as the Southern Oscillation Index, continue to show a residual La Niña-like signal. Trade winds have also recently re-strengthened in the western Pacific (more La Niña-like).

Three of seven climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest La Niña could return in early southern hemisphere spring, with a fourth in late spring. The remaining three models persist at neutral ENSO levels.

For the latest information about climate drivers visit the Bureau's website at: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/.