The first day of spring 2025 is expected to bring a few showers to Lismore and the Northern Rivers. This is a sign of the wet weather to come, as the Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has issued the long-range forecast for the 2025 spring season.

In general, the BoM predicts that for the September to November period, rainfall is likely to be above average for most of the eastern half of Australia. There is an increased chance of unusually high rainfall across much of eastern and central parts of Australia.

Due to the wetter-than-usual rain received since March, there is an increased risk of flooding during heavy rainfall on the east coast of New South Wales and southeast Queensland.

As is typical at this time of year, the risk of a wet spring arrives in October and November, with September looking at average rainfall.

Only 38mm is the median rainfall for September at Lismore. There is a 64% chance of above median rainfall (greater than 38mm), and a 27% chance of an unusually wet September, which is greater than 101.4mm.

When you compare that to October, the pattern changes.

October has a median of 64.6mm. The chance of above-average median is 73% and unusually wet (greater than 132.7mm) rises to 36%

Currently, you cannot see the numbers for November alone; however, the combined spring forecast still shows strong signs of a wet season.

The median rainfall for September to November is 258.7mm.

The chance of an above-average median is 66%, and the chance of an unusually wet (greater than 358.3mm) is 33%.

Typically, when we have a wetter-than-usual season, temperatures remain cooler than usual, and that is the case for spring.

September is similar to the forecast rainfall, it should be on average for the month. However, the story changes when you add October and November.

The median temperature is 25.6 degrees for spring. The chances of above median temperatures is 41%, while the chances of unusually cool temperatures (less than 24.9 degrees) is 23%. For comparison, unusually warm (greater than 26.3 degrees) is 6%.

The BoM says that warmer-than-usual nights are very likely throughout NSW.

While the forecast is not what we want to hear as we head into Christmas 2025, it is a reminder to make sure that you are prepared and that your flood plan is up to date and ready to activate, in case the worst happens and we get another flood.