Autumn is upon us but, with continuing high temperatures and high humidity, it still feels like summer.

And what a summer it was, with extreme dry relieved in February by extreme wet, inconvenient for some but welcomed by farmers, gardeners, householders and above all, firefighters. The rain started in the north and progressed southwards, and by February 13 it had helped to douse the bushfires that had dominated the headlines and devastated the lives of hundreds of people.

It was “a summer of two halves”, in the words of Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Andrew Watkins, with the two main drivers at the start of the season being a very strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole and a near-record negative Southern Annular Mode, which led to the warmest and driest December on record – a staggering 4.31 °C above the long-term average.

Those drivers “returned to neutral levels” in January, with a very late arrival of the northern monsoon finally bringing some tropical moisture to our shores.

While they helped to put out the flames and cooled temperatures compared to December, the extra moisture and cloud couldn’t stop January and February from ranking among the 10 warmest on record for the country as a whole, Dr Watkins said.

So what does autumn hold for us? Continuing “very much above” average temperatures, both during the day and at night.

And, while most areas of the state are showing no strong push towards wetter or drier than average conditions over autumn, the Northern Rivers has slightly increased odds of wetter than average conditions. (Sadly, in the far west of the State, the forecast is for rainfall to be “very much below average”.)

"Typically, in autumn our main climate drivers are resetting, which means they're exerting less influence on our weather patterns,” Dr Watkins said.

"This means we can expect our weather over the coming month or two to be driven by more local conditions, and that makes the seven-day forecast an important tool for assessing upcoming rainfall.

 “By winter, we will have an even clearer indication if this will change, and hence what the weather will look like for the rest of 2020."